search results for 
Logo

Health care sector and markets

The health care sector is considered to be independent of economic cycles to a great extent. The demand, especially for life-saving and life-sustaining products and services, is expected to increase, given that they are medically needed and the population is aging. Moreover, medical advances and the large number of diseases that are still difficult to cure – or are incurable – are expected to remain growth drivers.

In the emerging countries, the availability of basic health care and the growing demand for high-quality medical treatment increases. As per capita income increases, individuals increasingly have to cope with the illnesses associated with lifestyle diseases.

On the other hand, experts estimate that further financial constraints in the public sector could result in more pricing pressure and a slowdown in revenue for companies in the health care industry. Some countries are experiencing significant financing problems in the health care sector due to the strained public finance situation. Especially in the industrialized countries, increased pressure to encourage saving can be expected as health care costs constitute a large portion of the budget.

Basic health insurance is to be compulsory in the United States from 2014 onwards. Larger companies must offer their employees health insurance coverage, while small companies and low-income households will receive government assistance to take out health insurance. The reform allows for health insurance coverage to be phased in for the approximately 46 million people – about 15% of the population – who are not insured.

Industry observers believe that, despite all challenges, the sector will also see a comparatively solid financial performance in the foreseeable future.

Prevention, treatment quality, and the improvement of patient benefits will play an increasingly greater role in health care.

Source:Company research; German Bundestag, Research Papers, Health Care Reform in the USA, June 2010; website of the White House (www.whitehouse.gov)


THE DIALYSIS MARKET

We expect the worldwide number of dialysis patients to rise by approximately 6% in 2014, although significant regional differences will remain. For the United States, Japan, and the countries of Central and Western Europe, where prevalence is already relatively high, we forecast patient growth in the region of 2% to 4%. In economically weaker regions, the growth rates are even higher with values of up to 10%, and in some countries even more.

In addition, demographic factors such as aging populations and the growing number of people suffering from diabetes and hypertension, which are ailments often preceding terminal kidney failure, are contributing toward continued growth of the dialysis markets. The age expectancy of dialysis patients is also rising thanks to ongoing advances in treatment quality and a rising standard of living, especially in the emerging countries.

We expect patient numbers to continue to rise in the coming years in Asia, Latin America, Eastern Europe, the Middle East, and Africa. This opens up strong potential for the entire spectrum of dialysis services and products, as more than 80% of the world’s population lives in these regions.

We estimate that the volume of the global dialysis market could rise by about 4% annually – assuming unchanged currency relations. Accordingly, the total market could amount to approximately US$78 billion in 2014.

Further information is provided in the Management Report.

THE MARKET FOR INFUSION THERAPIES AND CLINICAL NUTRITION, GENERIC IV DRUGS, MEDICAL DEVICES, AND TRANSFUSION TECHNOLOGY

The market for infusion therapies in Europe is expected to grow by about 1% to 2% in the coming years. Growth of about 3% is expected for the clinical nutrition market in Europe. However, given the financial constraints in these countries, the efforts to contain costs in the health care sector are being pursued undiminished. Continued high growth potential is projected in Asia-Pacific, Latin America, and Africa. We expect growth of up to 10% and more in these regions.

In view of the financial challenges in health care, and in order to ensure high-quality care, we believe that the more cost-effective generics drugs will be utilized even more than at present. With generic IV drugs the growth dynamic will continue to be driven by originator drugs going off-patent. A factor working in the opposite direction is the price erosion for products that are already in the market. We expect the market for IV generics in Europe and the United States to grow by about 3% to 5% in 2014.

The worldwide market for medical devices for infusion therapy, IV drugs, and clinical nutrition is expected to grow by about 3% in 2014.

The worldwide market for transfusion technology is projected to grow between 1% and 4%, depending on the segment.

THE GERMAN HOSPITAL MARKET

From 2014 onwards, the so-called change in value is the relevant figure in the annual assessment of the reimbursement rates. Reimbursement is determined by the rate of change or, if higher, the cost-orientation figure. The rate of change reflects how the assessable income of all statutorily insured has developed. It is announced by the German Federal Ministry of Health. The orientation figure, which is published by the German Federal Statistical Office, represents the average percentage change in hospital costs per year.

In 2014, the rate of change is applied, since, at 2.81%, it is higher than the cost-orientation figure of 2.02%. The increase in the reimbursement rates is the highest since the DRG system was introduced in 2003.

With regard to the reimbursement of additional admissions, we do not expect significant changes in 2014.

In 2013, the Bundestag and the Bundesrat decided to provide financial support to hospitals in Germany. A total of €1.1 billion has been allocated for 2013 and 2014.

Even considering the revenue increases, it will probably not be possible to cover all the expected cost increases at the hospitals – especially with regard to personnel costs as a result of wage tariff increases. Hospitals will continue to face cost pressure and the need for further savings in their operations.

Given their growing investment needs but declining government support, hospitals are under growing pressure to rigorously tap the potential for rationalization. Financing investments is a challenge especially for public hospitals. The constrained financial situation of local governments reduces their ability to cover the hospitals’ operating losses and finance investments. The financial scope for supporting loss-making hospitals and investing in public health care facilities remains limited.

Therefore, the economic situation at the hospitals continues to be difficult. According to the Krankenhaus Barometer 2013 survey by the German Hospital Institute (DKI), only 22% of hospitals expect business to improve and almost 40% expect the situation to worsen in 2014.

It is generally expected that the proportion of private hospitals will rise at the expense of public hospitals. Private hospital chains and alliances are likely to be able to respond to the pressure to improve efficiency better than public hospitals. They often have more experience in operating commercially and creating efficient structures. They also have the potential to secure cost advantages in procurement. We therefore anticipate that privatization and consolidation will continue in the German hospital market.

Other crucial factors for a hospital’s success are not only cost-efficient processes, a well-structured medical offering, and well-trained staff, but also excellent medical quality. HELIOS is convinced that systematic quality management and the documentation of medical outcomes should not just serve as marketing instruments, but should be an element of hospital management, and thus part of the reimbursement. In the long run, initiatives could be introduced that provide for quality-based reimbursement (pay for performance) and that allow hospitals the option of concluding selective contracts with health insurers. With its strict focus on quality and transparency, HELIOS would be well prepared for such a future development.

A new flat-rate compensation system (PEPP-Entgeltsystem 2013) was introduced in 2013 for psychiatric and psychosomatic facilities. The new compensation catalogue is broken down into many more categories than the present remuneration system. The aim is to improve transparency concerning the services provided at psychiatric and psychosomatic facilities. The system provides for a 5-year transition phase from 2017 through 2021, and has no effects on the budget of HELIOS through the end of 2016. Psychiatric and psychosomatic services only account for a small share of the services provided by HELIOS.

Experts assume the importance of post-acute care will rise due to demographic trends, longer working lives, and the growing prevalence of chronic diseases. As a result of growth in acute care admissions and continuous improvements in the internal referral management of HELIOS, we expect to be able to leverage potential synergies from the combination of acute care and post-acute care, thereby increasing our number of post-acute care admissions.

THE MARKET FOR PROJECTS AND SERVICES FOR HOSPITALS AND OTHER HEALTH CARE FACILITIES

Owing to demographic trends, in industrialized countries growing demand for high-quality, efficient medical care – and thus for projects and services for hospitals and other health care facilities – is expected to continue. The focus is on services ranging from the maintenance and repair of medical and hospital equipment, facility management, and technical operation, through to total operational management and infrastructure process optimization – especially within the framework of public-private partnership (PPP) models. Additional growth opportunities are presented by an increasing number of non-medical services, which are outsourced from public facilities to private service providers.

In the emerging countries, there is growing demand above all for infrastructure development, but also for efficient, needs-oriented medical care. The provision of primary health care is now very largely in place. Therefore, in many markets, the focus now is on building up secondary care, developing tertiary health care structures in the form of centers of excellence, and creating training and research structures.

All in all, we expect our market to continue growing in 2014. In markets with established health care systems, we expect solid growth; in emerging markets, we anticipate an overall dynamic development.

Back to:
Future markets
Continue reading:
Group sales and earnings

QUICKFINDER

History

Tools